The Oxford Oracle

Ten years seems like a long time to measure an investment.  But which ten years you measure can make a tremendous difference.

As America continued to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of 2021, the economy and the equity markets made significant progress.  My midyear report to you is, as always, divided into two parts.

FOMO or "Fear of Missing Out" seems to be driving a lot of money discussions these days.  Whether it's hoarding Bitcoin, multiple homebuyers making bids over asking price on houses, or day trading in "meme stocks" like GameStop and AMC it's clear that a mania is building in the minds of the general public.  When these manias end they will leave investors looking the same way they always do...FUBAR.  If you're not familiar with the term, ask your military friends.

Famous philosophers back to Aristotle have extolled the virtues of walking to stimulate creativity, mental clarity, happiness, focus, and fresh perspective.  Turns out this ancient practice could benefit your investment portfolio as well.

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum receive vast amounts of attention from the media, with most headlines touting the incredible price swings in these "investments".  As useful as these may eventually become as a means of exchange, they are not investments ; they are merely "speculations".  Retirees who don't understand the difference are putting their retirement portfolios in jeopardy.

Inflation in the US economy is real, and likely to get worse.  Those wishing to better understand what inflation is and how it affects retirees can reference my May 11 blog post.

If you live in certain portions of the Midwest and Atlantic coast, you're probably dealing with a terrible swarm of nasty bugs right now.  These bugs appear periodically, preying on innocent people.  Overcome with fear of these horrible creatures, some are no longer able to enjoy time with friends and family.  Instead, they huddle inside by the TV waiting for the next dire report to be published about the destruction sure to ensue.

Just when you thought the stock day trading mania couldn't get any worse, Fidelity Investments decides to help teenagers day trade stocks by rolling out the "Fidelity Youth Account".  You can read about the whole silly concept here.  

In 1985 the movie “Back to the Future” was released. As Wikipedia explains “Set in 1985, the story follows Marty McFly (Fox), a teenager accidentally sent back to 1955 in a time-traveling DeLorean automobile built by his eccentric scientist friend Doctor Emmett "Doc" Brown (Lloyd). Trapped in the past, Marty inadvertently prevents his future parents' meeting—threatening his very existence—and is forced to reconcile the pair and somehow get back to the future.” It's now 35 years later and I can’t help but wonder if we aren’t facing another crisis that could use some time-traveling help. You see, it’s been nearly that long since investors had to face down the terrible financial menace called inflation.

Much ink is spilled each day in the media about the "volatile" stock market.  Even with the S&P 500 up 10% year to date and an incredible 44% in the past year, the media continues to look for the bad news in a sea of good.