The Oxford Oracle

I hope this letter finds you and your family healthy and happy as we begin the new year.

Want to know if you're dealing with an honest investment advisor?  Ask them this one simple question:  "Where do you think the market is going?"

In the article Setting Your Investment Policy we established that stocks are a proven tool for funding long-term retirement goals, and that they are inherently volatile.  These realities should be documented between a client and their advisor in a written Investment Policy Statement. 

Year to date the S&P 500 has set new record highs 53 times.  While the market has cooled a bit of late, it's still up more than 18% for the year.  At this point some experts are predicting continued strong gains, while others suggest the market is ripe for a fall.

This Saturday marks the 20th anniversary of one of the most tragic events in American history.  2,977 innocent lives lost, 25,000 people injured and over $10 billion in property damage.  

Clients of Oxford are familiar with our belief that market timing is a fool's errand.  Market timing refers to the (very mistaken) belief that there is some sort of investing crystal ball that will allow an investor to get out of the market right before things get bad, and then get back in right before the market goes back up.  While intellectually appealing, the entire idea has been proven to be a failure.  It turns out that investor myopia gets worse at precisely the wrong time.  

"Know what you own, and why you own it."

For years now Cheerios have been the most widely known breakfast brand in the United States.  Everybody seems to have them in the pantry.  When I was a kid my favorite breakfast was a bowl of cheerios with banana slices and sugar (LOTS of sugar).  My Mom rarely bought the expensive sugary cereals like Fruit Loops, so I would sneak in some extra sugar into my Cheerios when she wasn't looking.

Ten years seems like a long time to measure an investment.  But which ten years you measure can make a tremendous difference.

As America continued to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of 2021, the economy and the equity markets made significant progress.  My midyear report to you is, as always, divided into two parts.